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Expert Opinions

Balancing a soft Macro Pulse and Dovish Central Banks

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The S&P500 moved above the 3000 mark at the start of July, establishing a new historical record. 

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The S&P500 moved above the 3000 mark at the start of July, establishing a new historical record. The fears that grew back in May, which resulted in a broad equity sell-off of close to 7%, have thus quickly been forgotten. 

In a context where political uncertainty remains high (trade wars, Brexit, US debt ceiling, etc.), the durability of this rebound is certainly questionable. While it’s true that world growth remains somewhat fragile, Central Banks have signaled imminent accommodative moves. With these two factors balancing each other out, we maintain an equity positioning close to neutral on equity markets, but with a preference for the US, where macro momentum has shown signs of stabilizing, and where monetary policy has more leeway. Moreover, in a context where liquidity remains abundant, we remain overweight on corporate debt.